ATLAS · Delta Tracker · Project Glacier I

Framework component · movement at a glance

4 Bay Score Components

AHA

▲ +0.5 pp

3.5%

Adj. Hospitality Alpha

1Y 3.0% 3Y 2.7% 5Y 2.4% 10Y 1.9%

BAS

▲ +0.05

0.35

Bay Adjusted Sharpe

1Y 0.30 3Y 0.27 5Y 0.25 10Y 0.21

BMRI

▲ +6 pts

80

Bay Market Resilience

1Y 74 3Y 71 5Y 68 10Y 65

LSD

▲ −0.4

2.0

Liquidity Stress (lower=better)

1Y 2.4 3Y 2.6 5Y 2.8 10Y 3.1

Adjusted Bay Score · decision threshold scale

Reject

Defer

Cond.

Approve

Strong approve

The 6 raw inputs that feed the framework. Movement here drives every downstream metric.

6 framework inputs

Metric	10Y	5Y	3Y	1Y	Current	Framework impact
Projected IRR Levered · deal-level	11.2%	12.1%	12.8%	13.6%	14.5%	AHA ▲ BAS ▲ P(exit) ▲
Benchmark IRR BSH Hospitality Index	7.4%	7.8%	8.0%	8.3%	8.5%	AHA ▼
Illiquidity Premium (IP) Per-LSD lockup compensation	3.2%	2.9%	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	AHA ▲ P(exit) ▲
Volatility (σ) Macro dispersion adjusted	14.2%	12.8%	11.5%	10.6%	10.0%	BAS ▲
LSD · Liquidity Stress Delta Lower = better · range [0, 5]	3.1	2.8	2.6	2.4	2.0	LSD ▲ P(exit) ▲
BMRI · Bay Market Resilience Range [0, 100]	65	68	71	74	80	BMRI ▲ Bay Score ▲

Computed from raw inputs above. Bay Score components plus the composite.

7 derived metrics

Metric	10Y	5Y	3Y	1Y	Current	Drives
AHA · Adj. Hospitality Alpha IRR − Benchmark − IP	0.6%	1.4%	2.1%	2.7%	3.5%	Bay Score · 30% P(exit)
BAS · Bay Adjusted Sharpe AHA / σ	0.04	0.11	0.18	0.25	0.35	Bay Score · 20% P(exit)
BMRI · normalized Identity (raw = 0–100)	65	68	71	74	80	Bay Score · 30%
LSD · normalized (inv) Inverted [5, 0] → [0, 100]	38	44	48	52	60	Bay Score · 20% P(exit)
Bay Score · composite Weighted sum of 4 components	52.4	61.2	68.0	75.0	76.4	→ Penalty → Decision
Adjusted Bay Score After governance penalty	51.2	60.0	66.8	74.6	76.0	→ IC Decision
P(exit success) Logistic over framework inputs	28%	42%	52%	62%	66%	→ Pathway fit

Penalty adjustments and exit-pathway fit. Movement here can shift the decision zone.

5 watchlist metrics

Metric	10Y	5Y	3Y	1Y	Current	Framework impact
Governance penalty Sum of bps from amber/red flags	120 bps	120 bps	120 bps	40 bps	40 bps	Adj. Bay Score ▼
Country macro Z (C-overlay) Portfolio-weighted	−0.3σ	+0.1σ	+0.4σ	+0.7σ	+0.9σ	Bay Score ▲
Secondary pathway fit Best-fit exit option	42%	52%	60%	66%	70%	Exit optionality ▲
REIT pathway fit Conditional on multiples >9.0×	31%	40%	48%	54%	58%	Exit optionality ▲
Active signal chains Of 15 tracked · firing live	2 / 15	3 / 15	4 / 15	5 / 15	6 / 15	+4.6 pt overlay