| Deal | Geography | Bay Score | Zone | P(exit) | IRR (LTM) | MOIC | 90d trend | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Project Glacier I
$1.2B · 4 hotels · 1,427 keys · TLC operator
|
SGAUSUK
|
76.0 ▲ +1.4 | APPROVE | 66% ▲ +4pp | 13.2% ▲ +30bps | 2.1× |
|
|
|
Project Aurora
$1.6B · India platform · 23 hotels
|
IND
|
68.4 ▼ −2.1 | CONDITIONAL | 54% ▼ −6pp | 10.8% ▼ −80bps | 1.6× |
|
|
|
Project Tide
$1.2B · APAC operator · 11 hotels
|
APAC
|
82.1 ▲ +0.8 | STRONG | 81% | 16.4% ▲ +20bps | 2.6× |
|
| Deal | Geography | Bay Score | Zone | P(exit) | Target IRR | Stage | 90d trend | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Project Sandstone
$640M · Riyadh + Dubai · 3 hotels · 720 keys
|
KSAUAE
|
74.5 ▲ +3.2 | APPROVE | 63% | 14.8% | IC review |
|
|
|
Project Cedar
$280M · Tokyo · 2 hotels · 414 keys
|
JPN
|
73.2 ▲ +0.4 | APPROVE | 69% | 13.6% | Diligence |
|
|
|
Project Maldives Atoll
$420M · 4 resorts · 280 keys · luxury
|
MDV
|
68.9 — flat | CONDITIONAL | 58% | 15.2% | Term sheet |
|
|
|
Project Mumbai Spire
$310M · BKC office-hotel mixed
|
IND
|
66.7 ▼ −1.3 | CONDITIONAL | 52% | 14.0% | Diligence |
|
|
|
Project Bali Cove
$180M · 2 resorts · Nusa Dua · 240 keys
|
IDN
|
62.4 ▲ +0.6 | DEFER | 48% | 12.8% | Sourced |
|
|
|
Project Lisbon Atlas
$240M · 3 lifestyle hotels · post-EXPO
|
PRT
|
60.1 ▼ −0.4 | DEFER | 45% | 11.4% | Sourced |
|
| Deal · Rejection date | Geography | Bay Score then | Bay Score now | Δ Zone | Reject reason | Reconsider? | 90d trend | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Project Mekong Edge
Ho Chi Minh City · rejected Q1 2025
|
VNM
|
58.3 | 72.6 ▲ +14.3 | DEFER → APPROVE | Macro instability | YES |
|
|
|
Project Athens Crown
Athens centre · rejected Q3 2024
|
GRC
|
61.4 | 70.2 ▲ +8.8 | COND → APPROVE | Tourism volatility | YES |
|
|
|
Project Cairo Reach
Cairo + Sharm · rejected Q4 2024
|
EGY
|
42.1 | 56.8 ▲ +14.7 | REJECT → DEFER | Currency risk | WATCH |
|
|
|
Project Lagos Marquee
Lagos VI · rejected Q2 2024
|
NGA
|
38.7 | 41.2 ▲ +2.5 | REJECT | Sovereign risk | NO |
|
|
|
Project Buenos Aires Plaza
Recoleta · rejected Q1 2025
|
ARG
|
41.0 | 53.4 ▲ +12.4 | REJECT → DEFER | Inflation | WATCH |
|
|
|
Project Manchester Hub
Northern Quarter · rejected Q3 2024
|
GBR
|
55.8 | 62.1 ▲ +6.3 | DEFER → COND | Brand fit | NO |
|
|
|
Project Cape Town View
Sea Point · rejected Q4 2024
|
ZAF
|
46.2 | 47.8 ▲ +1.6 | REJECT | Operator gap | NO |
|
|
|
Project Istanbul Bridge
Beyoglu · rejected Q2 2025
|
TUR
|
52.3 | 54.6 ▲ +2.3 | DEFER | FX volatility | NO |
|
Live Signal Feed
6 firing · 17 watching
AUS · Cap-rate Expansion
Hotel cap rates +35 bps in 30 days · Brisbane retraction. 50 bps move triggers chain.
PORTGlacier I
PORTAurora
VNM · Visa Liberalization
India-VNM e-visa reciprocity announced. Inbound +18% projected within 18 mo · BMRI lift +8 pts.
REJMekong Edge
IND · Sovereign CDS Widening
India 5Y CDS +28 bps in 14 days. Through 200 bps trigger. LSD pressure on 4 deals.
PORTAurora
PIPEMumbai Spire
GRC · Tourism Demand Surge
Athens RevPAR +14% YoY · post-cycle inflection. Reverses prior volatility concerns.
REJAthens Crown
KSA · Vision 2030 Acceleration
$80B Riyadh hospitality CapEx confirmed · BMRI lift +5 pts · pipeline opportunity expansion.
PIPESandstone
EGY · Currency Stabilization
EGP stable for 90 days post-IMF programme · Cairo entries reopening for review.
REJCairo Reach
GBR · Regional Airlift Decline
UK regional seat capacity −3% YoY · Manchester demand structurally exposed.
PORTGlacier I
ARG · Inflation Cooling
Monthly CPI < 5% for 2 consecutive months · macro stress easing.
REJBuenos Aires Plaza
Portfolio Concentration
Within limits
India exposure
39%
Singapore exposure
33%
Australia exposure
23%
UK exposure
14%
TLC operator concentration
25%
Exit vintage 2031–33
48%